As Millwall’s season resumes after the World Cup break, there is a battle for the goalkeeping jersey not many would have predicted at the onset of the campaign.
Bartosz Bialkowski had been an ever-present since replacing the injured Frank Fielding on the opening day of the 2019/20 season with fans quickly becoming accustomed to the ‘Bart’ worldie on a weekly basis.
After 146 consecutive games, and despite Millwall’s tricky start to the season, number 147 against Blackpool at home on September 17th felt a given.
However, when the line-up was released, no-one predicted George Long would be named in the starting XI. The 29-year-old was yet to make an appearance in the league for the Lions since signing on a free in May 2021 but has started all eleven games since that Blackpool outing.
Now, following the mid-season pause, many will be looking to manager Gary Rowett for a final decision on his number one – Long has had his audition, Rowett has had time to think, it’s stick or twist time for the Lions boss.
Goalkeeping is tricky but evaluating it can be even trickier. For most, it’s simple: saving more shots means you’re a better goalkeeper. But in reality there is much more to the job than that.
The problem for Rowett is that Long and Bialkowski are almost polar opposites.
Bialkowski is a phenomenal shot stopper with his highlights reel appearing as though the Pole may be the greatest goalkeeper Millwall has ever had.
He ranks in the 89th percentile of goalkeepers in similar leagues for Post Shot xG (PSxG) on football data source FBRef – this stat is the number of expected goals based on the likelihood of the goalkeeper making a save and Bart consistently overperforms in this category.
His 13 goals conceded this year carried a Post Shot xG of 14.9, meaning Bialkowski has prevented 1.9 goals so far this season – in just nine games.
By contrast, despite only conceding nine goals in 11 games, Long is significantly underperforming. His Post Shot xG of 5.8 shows he has conceded 3.2 more goals than one would expect, ranking in the 13th percentile.
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It’s clear to see shot stopping is not Long’s strength as throughout his career he has largely underperformed in Post Shot xG, while Bialkowski has overperformed. For many, this is enough to put Bialkowski in the number one spot.
However, in almost every other aspect of the job, Long outperforms Bialkowski.
Long is an excellent distributor, both over short and long range and has undoubtedly helped Millwall to be more on the front foot in possession and more secure playing back to their own goal.
He is also more pro-active at claiming crosses and sweeping, ranking in the 64th and 59th percentile for those actions respectively, compared to Bart’s 16th and 8th percentile.
Long’s introduction to the side has clearly contributed to the upturn in form and, despite his weaknesses, his strengths have complemented Rowett’s shift to a 4-2-3-1.
With this in mind, it is likely Long would retain the No.1 spot for now which may seem particularly harsh on Bialkowski, a fan favourite, making it feel like he is being punished despite doing nothing ‘wrong’ per se.
Rarely does a club find themselves with two such contrasting options in goal and whoever Rowett picks, he’ll be lacking what the other brings.
And so, the proposed solution. Why choose?
Usually in football, the done thing is to have a clear first choice who plays week-in, week-out and only changing for cup matches or an injury crisis. However, given the profile of the two players in question, why not rotate?
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Teams change personnel based on the opposition, so why not do the same with the goalkeeper position?
In games against possession-based sides, where Millwall are expected to sit deep, contain and be on the back foot, perhaps Bart is the natural choice. In that situation, shot stopping will be the priority. Of course, you lose Long’s distribution on the counter, but you can’t have it all.
When Millwall want to assert themselves against opposition, build better possession and dominate the match, that is when Long should be selected as he allows the team to play a higher line and can be utilised as an option in deep build-up and help the side get forward quicker.
It may initially be unconventional, but in an age of specialisation, why not opt for the situation specific goalkeeper?